[Nickel Ore Market Weekly Review] Uncertainty in Indonesian Domestic Trade Laterite Ore Policy Ferments, Boosting Downstream Stockpiling Willingness

Published: Jan 10, 2025 18:27

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Domestic Philippine nickel ore prices may weaken due to downstream drag. During the week, Philippine prices remained stable. Shipments of low-grade high-iron ore for the year have ended, with no transactions in the market. For medium- to high-grade nickel ore, this week saw transaction prices for 1.3-grade nickel ore at $31 FOB/wmt. However, influenced by the declining domestic high-grade NPI prices, nickel ore prices may fluctuate downward in the future.

In terms of supply, although Philippine mines have resumed operations after the "double holiday" break, the activity of new year offers has not shown significant improvement. On the demand side, market sentiment for downstream NPI and stainless steel remains sluggish, with high-grade NPI prices continuing to decline, making it difficult for domestic iron plants to accept high-priced nickel ore. Regarding ocean freight rates, weather conditions in the Philippines during the week led to increased shipping costs, causing a slight rise in freight prices. Overall, Philippine nickel ore prices may face slight downward pressure due to weak downstream market sentiment.

Under the influence of uncertainty in Indonesia's domestic trade laterite ore policy, downstream stocking willingness improved. This week, transaction activity for Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore improved, driven by strong policy uncertainty and the potential impact of the rainy season on future supply. In terms of supply, according to SMM, mines have gradually passed the SIMBARA system's MOMS review since the beginning of the month. Mines with approved RKAB quotas have started selling and shipping domestic trade ore, stabilizing the short-term supply of nickel ore. On the demand side, influenced by policy uncertainty and pre-holiday stocking demand, Indonesian NPI plants showed stronger purchase willingness in January.

Regarding price trends, the January HMA benchmark price was slightly down MoM from December, but premium prices may rise under the influence of Indonesian policies, becoming a key parameter affecting Indonesian nickel ore prices. Overall, Indonesian nickel ore prices may fluctuate upward in the future.

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