Prices of Rare Earth Concentrates Increased Amid Stalemate in Back-and-Forth Negotiations Between Upstream and Downstream; Oxide Prices Fluctuate Rangebound [SMM Analysis]

SMM, January 9: With the arrival of 2025, the rare earth market has seen a "good start." Starting in January, China Northern Rare Earth canceled its monthly listing prices, indicating that its long-term contract prices will align more closely with the market. According to an SMM survey, some domestic raw ore separation enterprises are expected to suspend production for maintenance in January, prompting downstream metal enterprises to increase stockpiling. Suppliers took the opportunity to raise oxide quotations, leading to a rapid decline in low-price market activity and a new round of price increases for mainstream rare earth products.

However, the good times did not last long, as terminal order prices remained persistently low. Feedback from some magnetic material enterprises indicates that the current price of NdFeB blanks, when converted to Pr-Nd alloy, is only 480,000-490,000 yuan/mt. Although metal plants hope to raise metal product prices by leveraging the increase in oxide prices, magnetic material enterprises are reluctant to purchase at high prices. Coupled with sufficient metal product inventory, the issue of losses in metal raw material costs has become increasingly severe.

On January 9, Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. announced that the company plans to adjust the related transaction price of rare earth concentrates for Q1 2025 to 18,618 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%, excluding tax). For every 1% increase or decrease in REO, the price will increase or decrease by 372.36 yuan/mt (excluding tax). This represents a 4.7% increase QoQ from Q4 2024, translating to a Pr-Nd oxide cost of approximately 334,000 yuan/mt (including tax).

Under the influence of the above factors, rare earth oxide prices have primarily fluctuated rangebound since entering January. With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, the market is expected to gradually stabilize. Before the holiday, rare earth prices are unlikely to experience significant volatility due to the stalemate in back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream.

》Apply for a Free Trial of the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database