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According to SMM, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises in December 2024 was 75.64%, up 0.16 percentage points MoM and up 6.66 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 79.69%, medium-sized enterprises 61.05%, and small enterprises 70.64%. By sector, the operating rate of electronic circuit copper foil was 76.98% (up 1.23 percentage points MoM, up 0.64 percentage points YoY), while the operating rate of lithium battery copper foil was 74.89% (down 0.43 percentage points MoM, up 10.25 percentage points YoY). The overall operating rate of the copper foil industry is expected to decline to 72.55% in January 2025.
December Copper Foil Enterprises Operating Rate at 75.64%
In December 2024, the operating rate of domestic copper foil enterprises slightly increased, with the overall operating level in Q4 remaining stable. On one hand, both domestic and overseas downstream sectors had pre-holiday stockpiling demand; on the other hand, concerns over potential tariff policies to be implemented by Trump after his official inauguration in January led to early shipments within the industry chain. Specifically, the operating rate of lithium battery copper foil slightly declined in December due to end-users having accumulated sufficient raw materials and finished product inventories, resulting in a slight slowdown in demand for copper foil. However, in the power sector, automakers continued to boost production at year-end under the trade-in policy, while the ESS sector saw optimistic terminal orders during the year-end grid connection period. The operating rate of electronic circuit copper foil increased, with terminal orders from the automotive and high-end server industries performing relatively well.
December Copper Foil Industry Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories Both Declined
In December, the finished product inventory/output ratio in the copper foil industry decreased by 1.09 percentage points MoM to 16.33%, driven by downstream stockpiling demand and the rebound in copper foil processing fees, which boosted shipments and further reduced finished product inventories. The raw material inventory/output ratio decreased by 0.65 percentage points MoM to 17.51%, mainly due to enterprises controlling raw material inventory levels at the year-end period.
January 2025 Copper Foil Industry Operating Rate Forecast to Decline to 72.55%
SMM forecasts that in January 2025, the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises will be 72.55%, down 3.10 percentage points MoM and up 14.05 percentage points YoY. The operating rate of lithium battery copper foil is expected to be 71.74% (down 3.15 percentage points MoM, up 17.41 percentage points YoY), while the operating rate of electronic circuit copper foil is expected to be 73.98% (down 3.00 percentage points MoM, up 8.02 percentage points YoY).
SMM expects the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises to pull back in January, primarily due to the Chinese New Year, during which some downstream sectors will gradually suspend operations, leading copper foil enterprises to reduce production schedules. However, compared to the same period last year, the relatively optimistic terminal stockpiling demand, coupled with the rebound in copper foil processing fees in Q4, suggests that the copper foil industry is unlikely to experience significant shutdowns or production cuts. The operating level in January 2025 is expected to achieve substantial YoY growth.
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