Port Pick-Up Volume Expected to Increase Next Week, Providing Some Support to Iron Ore Spot Prices [SMM Brief Commentary]

Indonesian state-owned coal producer PTBA has slightly raised its 2026 production target to 49.55 million tonnes from 49.5 million tonnes, while setting full-year sales and transportation targets at 49.51 million tonnes and 41 million tonnes, respectively. The production target was increased by only 50,000 tonnes, or approximately 0.1%, giving the adjustment itself very limited direct significance for market supply. More importantly, PTBA’s first-half production fell 10% year on year to 19.45 million tonnes. To meet its full-year target, the company must produce approximately 30.1 million tonnes in the second half, around 54.8% more than its first-half output. It must also sell about 28.41 million tonnes during the period, approximately 34.6% above first-half sales, meaning that the production recovery must be supported by sufficient transportation and sales capacity. PTBA’s second-quarter production increased 94% from the previous quarter, while sales rose 8%, indicating that operations had begun to recover. Its first-half average selling price increased 14% quarter on quarter and 10% year on year, helping revenue rise 8% to 22.03 trillion rupiah and net profit attributable to the parent increase 218% to 2.65 trillion rupiah. Stronger prices and profitability have increased the company’s incentive to raise production and sales. PTBA’s domestic sales fell 9% year on year to 10.77 million tonnes in the first half, while exports increased 5% to 10.33 million tonnes. The company also intends to strengthen export sales.

South Africa’s Sasol plans to increase investment in its own coal mines to secure feedstock for its Secunda Operations while reducing coal purchases from third-party suppliers. The company produced 28.4 million tons of coal from its own mines in FY2026 and expects this to increase to between 30 million and 32 million tons in FY2027, before rising further to 34 million tons by 2028. Meanwhile, Sasol expects its external coal purchases to decline from 8.8 million tons in FY2026 to between 5 million and 7 million tons in FY2027. This represents a reduction of between 1.8 million and 3.8 million tons, or approximately 20.5% to 43.2%. The change primarily reflects Sasol’s substitution of externally purchased coal with own-mine production and does not indicate an equivalent decline in its overall coal requirements. The company said that increasing the share of own-mine coal would help maintain consistent coal quality, secure feedstock supplies and improve cost competitiveness. Sasol invested R1 billion to convert the Twistdraai export-coal washing plant into a destoning facility. The facility is now delivering processed coal with sinks below 12%. Improved coal quality, higher gasifier availability and the absence of a shutdown in FY2026 collectively supported an increase in annual output at Secunda Operations to a five-year high of 7.2 million tons. With a scheduled shutdown planned for FY2027, the company expects the facility to produce between 7.2 million and 7.4 million tons during the year. Mining capital expenditure increased from R2.9 billion in FY2024 to R4.1 billion in FY2026 and is expected to rise by a further R1 billion to R1.5 billion in FY2027, including investment in a shaft-replacement project. In addition, Sasol is assessing the production of methane-rich gas from coal as a bridge supply for industrial customers that could face a gas supply shortage from 2028 onward. However, the project still requires greater long-term pricing certainty and further regulatory assessment, and the company has not yet made a final investment decision.

Indian integrated logistics and engineering services company Sical Logistics has secured a five-year mining contract worth approximately ₹5.3473 billion from Central Coalfields Limited for heavy earth-moving and mining operations at the SDOC Mine in Bokaro district, Jharkhand. The contract covers the re-handling of approximately 20.14 million cubic metres of overburden, the removal of around 33.65 million cubic metres of hard overburden, and the extraction of approximately 9.104 million tonnes of coal from a 143-hectare working area. The contract value includes an 18% goods and services tax, while the execution period is 1,825 days. A simple five-year average would place the contracted coal volume at approximately 1.82 million tonnes per year.