[SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Review] Production Declined, Social Inventory Decreased

Ø  Weekly Balance of HRC

Ø  This Week's HRC Production Declined WoW

This week, steel mill maintenance was concentrated in east and central China, leading to a WoW decline in HRC production.

Ø  This Week's HRC Social Inventory Declined WoW

According to SMM statistics, this week, the HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) stood at 2.8476 million mt, down 121,700 mt WoW (-4.1%) and down 20.26% YoY (lunar calendar). Except for a slight inventory buildup in central China, other regions, including east, south, north, and north-east China, experienced destocking, with the largest decline in east China. Specifically:

l  [Shanghai] Slight Inventory Buildup in Shanghai in the First Week of 2025

This week, Shanghai's HRC inventory reached 245,200 mt, up 5,800 mt WoW (+2.42%), with a Gregorian YoY decline of 39.32% and a lunar YoY decline of 32.91%.

l  [Lecong] Reduced Arrivals Led to Slight Destocking in Lecong

This week, Lecong's HRC inventory stood at 54,410 mt, down 5,400 mt WoW (-0.99%), with a lunar YoY increase of 162,700 mt (+29.90%).

l  [Zhangjiagang] Accelerated Inventory Decline in Zhangjiagang This Week

This week, Zhangjiagang's HRC inventory was 458,000 mt, down 27,000 mt WoW (-5.57%), with a Gregorian YoY decline of 11.41% and a lunar YoY decline of 14.87%.  

l  [Tangshan] Slight Destocking in Tangshan This Week

This week, Tangshan's HRC inventory reached 421,400 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW (-0.66%), with a YoY decline of 364,800 mt (-46.4%).

This week, HRC production declined WoW, while terminal purchasing remained resilient. Overall, social inventory continued its downward trend. Looking ahead, with some steel mill maintenance nearing completion, there may be a slight increase in HRC production in the short term. However, manufacturing demand is expected to weaken gradually, and nationwide social inventory risks are anticipated to emerge next week.