Solar Cell Inventory Declines, Module Production Schedule Drops Significantly in January [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, January 2:

Solar Cell

Prices

High-efficiency PERC 182 solar cells (efficiency of 23.2% and above) were priced at 0.31 yuan/W; PERC 210 solar cells were priced at approximately 0.28-0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 183 solar cells (efficiency of 25% and above) were priced at approximately 0.28-0.29 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN solar cells were priced at 0.27-0.275 yuan/W; Topcon 210 solar cells were priced at 0.285-0.29 yuan/W. HJT 210 half-cell solar cells were priced at 0.38-0.43 yuan/W. Prices of all models generally increased.

Production

In January, leading integrated manufacturers confirmed production cuts. After the price increase of solar cells, the operating rate of leading specialized solar cell manufacturers stabilized, with an overall operating rate of 51.49% during the Chinese New Year holiday.

Inventory

By month-end, inventories at solar cell manufacturers were effectively reduced, with inventory levels declining again. Some models remained in undersupply, mainly due to downstream stocking.

Modules

Prices

In the current module market, the mainstream transaction price for centralized PERC 182mm modules was 0.64-0.70 yuan/W, for PERC 210mm modules was 0.65-0.71 yuan/W, for N-type 182mm modules was 0.64-0.69 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm modules was 0.65-0.7 yuan/W. Market prices remained stagnant, and the trading volume of discounted modules gradually decreased.

Production

With the arrival of the Q1 off-season, companies produced based on sales and focused on selling inventory. Most companies scheduled holidays of 10-15 days or longer, leading to an 18% MoM decline in January's production schedule.

Inventory

Although the days of inventories remained at a medium level, year-end picking up goods demand improved turnover, significantly alleviating year-end inventory pressure compared to before.

PV Film

Prices:

EVA/POE PV-Grade Materials:

PV-grade EVA was priced at 10,600-11,000 yuan/mt, while PV-grade POE was traded at 12,000-13,600 yuan/mt.

PV Film:

Currently, the mainstream price for 420g transparent EVA film is 5.21-5.46 yuan/m², for 420g white EVA film is 5.63-6.05 yuan/m², for 380g EPE film is 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and for 380g POE film is 6.84-7.22 yuan/m². Film prices remained stable.

Production

In December, the planned production of PV-grade EVA was approximately 1.2 million mt, while domestic PV film production was about 430 million m².

Inventory

Due to reduced module production, orders for PV film also declined, leading to a decrease in order signing for EVA and a gradual accumulation of PV-grade EVA inventory.

Inverter

Prices

This week, inverter prices were as follows: 20kw at 0.12-0.16 yuan/W, 50kw at 0.11-0.15 yuan/W, 110kw at 0.1-0.14 yuan/W, and 320kw at 0.09-0.11 yuan/W. Inverter prices remained stable.

Supply and Demand

On the supply side, production was stable and sufficient, while overall demand was mediocre. Declining demand in Europe weakened PV ESS penetration, while large power string and centralized models saw boosted shipments in ground-mounted power station construction areas such as the US and India.

Prices

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was 19.5-20.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was 20.5-21.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was 11.5-12.0 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was 12.5-13.0 yuan/m², remaining stable.

Production

In December, two 1,200 mt/day furnaces in Hubei, China, underwent cold repairs, reducing supply. Further cold repair plans for furnaces are expected in January.

Inventory

In terms of inventory, the total inventory of some glass companies slightly increased by month-end, with overall changes compared to November being minimal.