[SMM Survey] Significant Increase in Blast Furnace Overhauls in December; Pig Iron Production Expected to Hit Bottom and Rebound in January

According to SMM's tracking survey data, 38 blast furnaces underwent maintenance in December, reducing daily pig iron production by 163,500 mt. Blast furnace maintenance was mainly concentrated in north China, east China, and central China. Meanwhile, 24 blast furnaces resumed production, increasing daily pig iron production by 102,000 mt. The regions where blast furnaces resumed production largely overlapped with those undergoing maintenance. In December, the impact from blast furnace maintenance increased significantly. SMM data shows that blast furnace maintenance in December resulted in a net reduction of 7.7815 million mt in pig iron production, up 1.8432 million mt from November. The average daily pig iron production decreased by approximately 60,000 mt. In January, according to SMM's tracking survey, 14 additional blast furnaces are planned for maintenance, reducing daily pig iron production by 54,000 mt. Conversely, 17 blast furnaces are expected to resume production, increasing daily pig iron production by 80,000 mt. Based on current data, it is estimated that blast furnace maintenance in January will impact a total of 7.72 million mt of pig iron, down 60,000 mt from December, with average daily pig iron production increasing by approximately 20,000 mt. Considering the current profitability of steel mills, most are still operating with slight profits. However, end-use demand continues to decline, increasing the pressure on steel mills to ship products. It is expected that some blast furnaces will still undergo maintenance before the Chinese New Year. On the other hand, with the end of environmental protection-driven production restrictions and the completion of annual maintenance tasks, some steel mills also have production resumption plans. Therefore, SMM expects the actual number of blast furnaces undergoing maintenance and resuming production in January to exceed current estimates. Pig iron production in January is expected to increase MoM from December, but the growth is likely to be limited. SMM will continue to track this situation on a weekly basis.