Polysilicon Production Schedule and Inventory Both Decline: Is the Market's Claim of Polysilicon Price Increase True? [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 31, 2024 14:20 (GMT+8)

Save

[SMM Analysis: Polysilicon Production Schedule and Inventory Both Decline, Is the Rumored Polysilicon Price Increase True?] On the morning of December 30, the market widely reported that some top-tier polysilicon enterprises sold polysilicon at 45 yuan/kg, either to crystal pulling plants or to traders. Is this truly the case in the market?

SMM, December 31: On the morning of December 30, the market circulated news that some top-tier polysilicon enterprises sold polysilicon at 45 yuan/kg, either to crystal pulling plants or traders. Is this truly the case in the market? Earlier, polysilicon had already experienced several rounds of continuous price increases, with prices quoted at 42 yuan/kg starting mid-month and rising to 44 yuan/kg around the time of listing... The sentiment in the polysilicon market has gradually been boosted. First, according to SMM detection data, the overall supply and demand situation for polysilicon has indeed improved. On one hand, polysilicon production has continued to decline. In December, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 93,000 mt, down 19.8% MoM from November, mainly due to the impact of production halts at multiple bases during the dry season. Polysilicon production is expected to continue declining in January, with an estimated decrease of around 2%. A base in Inner Mongolia is expected to undergo production cuts in January, becoming the main factor disrupting this production change. The continuous decline in production has alleviated the supply pressure on polysilicon. On the other hand, polysilicon inventory has also seen a significant decline recently. According to SMM data, the latest weekly polysilicon inventory was approximately 222,000 mt, down 23.44% from its peak. In mid-to-early December, several large orders were signed for polysilicon, with some enterprises destocking by around 20,000-30,000 mt. It is understood that the reasons for this destocking, besides the production cuts in polysilicon, also include stockpiling by downstream enterprises ahead of the Chinese New Year. Additionally, the rise in downstream prices, the entry of some traders, and the listing of futures have all supported the improvement in polysilicon market sentiment. Regarding the current market concern over transactions at 45 yuan/kg, SMM understands that there are indeed individual orders in the market, with some enterprises even quoting such prices externally as early as last week. However, these cases are very limited in representativeness, and the mainstream execution price currently remains at 40-41 yuan/kg. For the latest transactions, there is still a certain degree of market hesitation. Polysilicon enterprises are mostly quoting prices at 42 yuan/kg or above, while crystal pulling plants show some resistance to prices exceeding 42 yuan/kg. Additionally, with large-scale stockpiling just completed, the likelihood of representative large orders reappearing in the market is relatively small. 》View the SMM PV Industry Chain Database

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

Sep 25, 2026 10:14 (GMT+8)

[SMM PV Flash] Energiequelle Sells French Unit and 500 MW Renewables Portfolio to H2air

Energiequelle has completed the sale of its French subsidiary, Energiequelle SAS, to French developer and operator H2air for an undisclosed amount. The transaction includes the local team and an approximately 500 MW wind and solar portfolio, comprising about 60 MW in operation and additional projects at advanced pre-construction stages. Energiequelle described the divestment as part of a strategic refocus on core markets, while H2air will retain the employees and continue developing the assets.

Sep 25, 2026 10:14 (GMT+8)

[SMM PV Flash] Play Signs 15-Year Wind and Solar PPA with Qair in Poland

Polish telecom operator Play has signed a 15-year physical PPA with Qair Polska for about 35 GWh of wind and solar electricity annually, or roughly 525 GWh over the contract term. Supply will come from Qair-operated wind and photovoltaic plants in Poland and will include EKOenergy-labelled guarantees of origin. The agreement gives Play long-term renewable supply visibility while supporting the financing of new renewable capacity.

Sep 25, 2026 10:14 (GMT+8)

[SMM PV Flash] Greenvolt Starts Construction of 600 MW/2.4 GWh Polish BESS

Greenvolt has started construction of the 600 MW/2.4 GWh Siedlce battery energy storage project in Poland, with commercial operation targeted by the end of 2027. The design includes 210 battery containers and 105 transformer containers with power-conversion systems, with BYD Energy Storage supplying the battery technology and P&Q and ONDE supporting electrical infrastructure. Together with the operating Turośń Kościelna project and the Ełk project due online in the fourth quarter, the three assets will total 1 GW/4 GWh.

Sep 25, 2026 10:14 (GMT+8)