It Is Expected That China's Imports of Copper Concentrates from Africa and Indonesia Will Decrease Significantly by 2025 [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 27, 2024 14:55

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[SMM Analysis: China's Copper Concentrate Imports From Africa and Indonesia Expected to Drop Significantly in 2025] According to SMM, with the completion of the Kamoa smelter construction next year and its commissioning in May-June 2025, China's copper concentrate imports from the DRC will significantly decrease starting next year, while its copper anode imports from the DRC will increase substantially. Indonesia's PT Amman is expected to be commissioned early next year, and the Manyar smelter is expected to begin production in H2 next year. Due to Indonesia's ban on copper concentrate exports, China's copper concentrate imports from Indonesia will also drop significantly next year. India's Adani smelter is expected to be commissioned around mid-next year, which will divert South American supplies to India. As a result, China's copper concentrate imports from South America are also expected to face competition next year.

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In November 2024, China's imports of copper concentrates and ores totaled 2.2445 million mt, down 3.0% MoM and down 8.1% YoY. From January to November, cumulative imports of copper ores and concentrates reached 25.6429 million mt, up 2.2% YoY.

On the supply side of copper concentrates, the increase in imported copper concentrates mainly came from Chile, Kazakhstan, and the DRC. In November 2024, China imported 766,600 mt of copper concentrates from Chile, up 17.75% MoM and up 0.76% YoY, with a MoM increase of 115,500 mt. Imports from Kazakhstan reached 140,900 mt, up 36.15% MoM and up 10.31% YoY, with a MoM increase of 37,400 mt. Imports from the DRC totaled 67,300 mt, up 79.04% MoM and up 27.74% YoY, with a MoM increase of 29,700 mt.

Regarding the decrease in copper concentrate imports, the decline mainly came from Peru, Spain, and Brazil. In November 2024, China imported 572,700 mt of copper concentrates from Peru, down 10.8% MoM and down 2.07% YoY, with a MoM decrease of 69,300 mt. Imports from Spain were 10,100 mt, down 87.4% MoM and down 83.83% YoY, with a MoM decrease of 69,700 mt. Imports from Brazil were 2,600 mt, down 94.07% MoM and down 94.1% YoY, with a MoM decrease of 40,700 mt.

According to SMM, with the completion of the Kamoa smelter and its commissioning in May-June 2025, China's imports of copper concentrates from the DRC will significantly decrease starting next year, while imports of copper anode from the DRC will increase substantially. Indonesia's PT Amman is expected to begin commissioning early next year, and the Manyar smelter is expected to start production in H2 next year. Due to Indonesia's ban on copper concentrate exports, China's imports of copper concentrates from Indonesia will also drop significantly next year. India's Adani smelter is expected to begin commissioning around mid-next year, which will divert South American supply to India. Consequently, China's imports of copper concentrates from South America are also expected to face competition next year.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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