Domestic Blister Copper RCs Weaken as Supply Is Expected to Tighten in January 2025 [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 27, 2024 14:48 (GMT+8)

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[SMM Analysis: Domestic Blister Copper RCs Weaken, Supply Expected to Tighten in January 2025] SMM quoted domestic blister copper RCs in south China at 700-900 yuan/mt, with an average of 800 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM; domestic blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 800-1,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 900 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM...

SMM, December 27:
After entering December, blister copper RCs in south China fell below 1,000 yuan/mt again. In terms of supply, copper prices weakened, secondary copper raw material suppliers were reluctant to sell, and the previous stagnation in Malaysian port operations reduced import volumes. The rise in procurement costs for copper scrap raw materials led to a decline in spot supply of copper anode from scrap. On the demand side, smelters, aiming to meet their annual production targets, replenished raw materials and began stockpiling ahead of the Chinese New Year, keeping overall demand at a high level.

SMM analysis suggests that the blister copper market will remain tight in January 2025.

This week, SMM quoted blister copper RCs in south China at 700-900 yuan/mt (average 800 yuan/mt), down 100 yuan/mt MoM; blister copper RCs in north China at 800-1,000 yuan/mt (average 900 yuan/mt), down 100 yuan/mt MoM; and copper anode processing fees at 500-600 yuan/mt (average 550 yuan/mt), unchanged MoM.

Demand side, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, smelters still have stockpiling needs. Supply side, the outlook is less optimistic. Many domestic copper anode producers from scrap are expected to halt production for the holiday, and the supply of secondary copper raw materials is likely to continue declining. Additionally, due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's upcoming trade policies, traders have suspended imports of US-origin materials since late November, which is expected to reduce copper scrap raw material imports in January. Furthermore, the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy in January 2025 may cause price fluctuations in secondary copper raw materials, leading to stronger market sentiment of caution. Overall, market supply is expected to tighten further, and domestic blister copper spot RCs are likely to remain at low levels.

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