Copper inventories in major regions across China increased by 700 mt over the weekend [SMM weekly data].

Published: Dec 23, 2024 12:10

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[SMM Weekly Data on Copper Inventories in Major Regions] As of Monday, December 23, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China increased by 700 mt from last Thursday to 99,400 mt. However, the total inventory was 49,000 mt higher YoY from 50,400 mt. Among them, inventories in Shanghai were 41,700 mt higher YoY, those in Guangdong were 5,600 mt lower YoY, and those in Jiangsu were 13,500 mt higher YoY.

SMM, December 23:
As of Monday, December 23, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China increased by 700 mt WoW to 99,400 mt compared to last Thursday. However, total inventories were 49,000 mt higher YoY than the 50,400 mt recorded last year, with Shanghai up by 41,700 mt YoY, Guangdong down by 5,600 mt YoY, and Jiangsu up by 13,500 mt YoY.
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Specifically, inventories in Shanghai rose by 1,900 mt WoW to 72,100 mt, while Jiangsu inventories increased by 400 mt WoW to 15,600 mt. Over the weekend, both domestic and imported copper arrivals contributed to the inventory growth in these regions, alongside signs of weakening downstream consumption. In Guangdong, inventories fell by 1,500 mt WoW to 5,700 mt. Although downstream consumption in Guangdong has shown signs of weakening, as reflected in the region's low daily outflows from warehouses, arrivals remained limited. Additionally, the relatively small Shanghai-Guangdong price spread reduced cross-regional transfers, leading to a continued decline in inventories in this region.

Looking ahead, we understand that imported copper arrivals are continuing, and domestic copper arrivals are also expected to gradually increase, suggesting that total supply will increase WoW. On the demand side, as year-end approaches, downstream end-user enterprises are beginning to control their cash and inventory levels, leading to a decline in order volumes. According to our survey, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod producers is expected to drop to 77.29% this week, down by 3.33 percentage points WoW. Therefore, we anticipate a scenario of increasing supply and decreasing demand this week, with weekly inventories likely to rise again.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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