Fundamentals Imbalance Gradually Emerging, Short-Term Steel Prices Expected to Weaken

This week, the ferrous metals series prices fluctuated downward. On the news front, mid-week, the market reported restrictions on furnace charge shipments and production cuts. In the early hours of December 19, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, but its comments on the frequency of future rate cuts fell short of expectations. In the spot market, steel prices weakened during the week, market confidence was dampened, and coupled with the marginal cooling of end-use demand, spot market transaction levels continued to decline.

Looking ahead, as the year-end approaches, steel mills are increasing their annual maintenance schedules, pig iron production is showing a downward trend, and raw material prices are under pressure. On the steel side, low production levels drive further destocking of rebar, while HRC inventory pressure gradually increases, and imbalances in the steel fundamentals are becoming more apparent. Currently, there is a lack of policy stimulus amid the macro vacuum period. Steel prices face upside resistance, and in the short term, steel prices are expected to fluctuate downward.