China Aluminum Market Weekly Report (20.2412 Million)

Published: Dec 20, 2024 09:08

Save

The Hot Topic Details of the Aluminum Market This Week, 2024-12-16~12-19, Are as Follows...

This Week's Hot Topic: Spot alumina prices may enter a fluctuation adjustment phase in the short term.
Next Week's Forecast: Market sentiment tends to be pessimistic, and spot aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term.

Macro front, the US Fed announced an interest rate cut of 25 basis points to the 4.25%-4.50% range, marking the third consecutive cut, in line with expectations. The latest dot plot shows that policymakers expect two rate cuts in 2025, while in September, the forecast for rate cuts next year once reached four times. Following the Fed's decision and its indication of cautious future rate cuts, the US dollar index rose over 1% to a two-year high, putting pressure on the non-ferrous metals market.

Fundamentals side, the overall supply side remains relatively stable; on the demand side, affected by the off-season, the cancellation of export tax rebates, and regional environmental protection-driven production restrictions, the operating rate of downstream enterprises continues to decline. Overall, the macro environment is impacted by the Fed's hawkish remarks, while the fundamentals face risks of off-season consumption and aluminum ingot inventory buildup. Market sentiment tends to be pessimistic, and spot aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term.

Aluminum: The turning point for aluminum ingot inventory is further delayed to month-end December, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened significantly during the week.

For more details, please refer to the China Aluminum Market Weekly (20241219).

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

8 hours ago

Fed Governor Milan Pushes for Over 100 Basis Points Cut, Contradicts Barkin on Caution

Federal Reserve Governor Milan pointed out that it is necessary for the US Fed to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. At the same time, he is very much looking forward to the performance of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman. However, Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy must remain cautious until inflation fully pulls back to the target level, thereby ensuring the stability of the labour market.

8 hours ago

Democratic Senators Demand Delay in Fed Nomination Amid Criminal Investigation

All 11 Democratic members of the US Senate Banking Committee jointly sent a letter to the committee's chairman, Tim Scott, requesting that all nomination processes for the prospective Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, be postponed until the criminal investigation into current Fed Chairman Powell and other board members is concluded. However, Scott stated that Warsh's confirmation was a done deal.

8 hours ago

Fed to Keep Large Banks' Capital Levels Unchanged, Postpones Stress Test Reforms Until 2027

The US Fed has announced that it will maintain the capital levels of large banks unchanged during the upcoming stress test cycle (corresponding to the 2026 cycle). At the same time, the US Fed is planning multidimensional reforms to this annual test, aiming to enhance its transparency. The US Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, Bowman, revealed that adjustments to the stress capital buffer requirements for large banks will be postponed until 2027. This move is intended to provide the US Fed with sufficient time to evaluate potential flaws that may be exposed in its testing models when assessing banks' financial conditions under simulated economic downturn scenarios.

8 hours ago