China Aluminum Market Weekly Report (20.2412 Million)

This Week's Hot Topic: Spot alumina prices may enter a fluctuation adjustment phase in the short term. Next Week's Forecast: Market sentiment tends to be pessimistic, and spot aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term. Macro front, the US Fed announced an interest rate cut of 25 basis points to the 4.25%-4.50% range, marking the third consecutive cut, in line with expectations. The latest dot plot shows that policymakers expect two rate cuts in 2025, while in September, the forecast for rate cuts next year once reached four times. Following the Fed's decision and its indication of cautious future rate cuts, the US dollar index rose over 1% to a two-year high, putting pressure on the non-ferrous metals market. Fundamentals side, the overall supply side remains relatively stable; on the demand side, affected by the off-season, the cancellation of export tax rebates, and regional environmental protection-driven production restrictions, the operating rate of downstream enterprises continues to decline. Overall, the macro environment is impacted by the Fed's hawkish remarks, while the fundamentals face risks of off-season consumption and aluminum ingot inventory buildup. Market sentiment tends to be pessimistic, and spot aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term. Aluminum: The turning point for aluminum ingot inventory is further delayed to month-end December, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened significantly during the week. For more details, please refer to the China Aluminum Market Weekly (20241219).