November Steel Exports Declined MoM, Annual Export Volume Likely to Rank Second in History

On December 10, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.278 million mt of steel in November 2024, down 17.0% MoM but up 15.9% YoY. From January to November, steel exports totaled 101.152 million mt, up 22.6% YoY.

In November, China imported 473,000 mt of steel, down 11.8% MoM and 222.96% YoY. From January to November, cumulative steel imports reached 6.194 million mt, down 11.3% YoY.

Steel Exports Declined MoM in November but Remained at High Levels
With the high levels of steel exports in September and October, November's steel export volume decreased by 17% MoM but remained at a five-year high. Since late September, domestic macro policies introduced a stimulus policy package, leading to a significant rise in domestic steel prices. This weakened the price advantage of China's HRC export offers, increasing pressure on steel mills to secure export orders. However, concerns over potential tariff hikes under Trump's administration led to a rush in exports. Overall, steel export volumes declined MoM but remained at high levels.

Steel Imports Remained at Low Levels in November
On the import side, China imported 473,000 mt of steel in November, down 11.8% MoM and 222.96% YoY, maintaining a net export status. In September, China's net steel exports were 8.805 million mt, down 20.91% YoY.

Outlook for Steel Imports and Exports
According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in November 2024 was 49.3%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking a new high for H2 this year. Meanwhile, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that China's manufacturing new export orders index in November was 46.3%, up 0.5% MoM, reflecting a recovery in overseas demand and an increase in foreign orders.

Monitoring data from the World Steel Association indicated that crude steel production in October 2024 across 71 countries included in its statistics reached 152.1 million mt, up 1.0% YoY. Production outside China was 69.3 million mt, down 2.3% YoY.

As of December 9, 2024, FOB export offers for HRC from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $525/mt, $570/mt, and $490/mt, respectively, while China's FOB HRC export offer was $487/mt. Currently, China's HRC export offers are $38/mt, $83/mt, and $3/mt lower than those of India, Turkey, and the CIS, respectively, with the price advantage narrowing by 20.83%, 83.33%, and 26.55% MoM in November.

According to the latest shipping data from SMM, November steel port departures were 11.2263 million mt, down 11.07% MoM. Based on SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, December's planned export volume is expected to increase compared to November's actual export volume. Coupled with the continued export price advantage and the steady recovery of the global manufacturing PMI, China's steel exports in December are expected to remain at high levels. However, considering the prevalence of "rush exports" in November, the subsequent impact may weaken. SMM predicts that the MoM increase in December steel exports may be relatively small.

Currently, the yuan is in a depreciation trend, with the yuan-to-US dollar exchange rate down 2.2% MoM, which has strengthened the steel export advantage but also led to higher iron ore costs, eroding steel mill profits. Some steel mills have reported moderate enthusiasm for taking orders. Steel exports in January may see limited growth. Overall, steel exports in 2015 reached a historical high of 112.39 million mt, followed by 108.49 million mt in 2016. In 2024, steel export volumes are expected to surpass 2016 levels without surprises, securing the second-highest level in history.