Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,619.5/mt, hitting an intraday high of $9,635.5/mt shortly after the opening bell.

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded ag2509 futures contract for alumina opened at 2,895 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,908 yuan/mt, a low of 2,870 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,890 yuan/mt, down 7 yuan/mt or 0.25%, with an open interest of 303,000 lots.

On Thursday (June 19) during the early trading session of the US stock market, US President Trump posted that he believed the US Fed should have cut interest rates by 250 basis points in its decision the previous day.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cost Support vs. Weak Demand, Secondary Aluminum Prices Continue to Adjust Within a Narrow Range]: On Thursday, the domestic SMM ADC12 price decreased by 50 yuan/mt to 20,000-20,200 yuan/mt, primarily due to the aluminum price resuming its downward trend, which led to a decrease in the price of secondary aluminum raw materials. This, combined with insufficient new orders during the off-season and the impact of low-priced supplies on the market, jointly dragged down the ADC12 price.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Turbulence and Fundamentals in Tug-of-War, Short-Term Volatility in Aluminum Market to Persist] On the macro side, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Fed policymakers still predict a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut this year, but they have slowed the pace of future rate cuts. However, Fed Chairman Powell warned against overemphasizing this outlook, noting that with the looming increase in import tariffs, "considerably high" inflation is expected in the future. On the fundamentals side, domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, with reduced casting ingot volumes contributing to the continued destocking of domestic aluminum ingot inventory. On the cost side, alumina and auxiliary material prices are expected to weaken, leading to reduced cost support for electrolytic aluminum. On the demand side, domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties have exerted dual pressures, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is expected to decline under pressure in the short term. Overall, the current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices. However, the off-season pressure on the demand side limits the upside room. Spot aluminum ingot in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, with short-term aluminum prices expected to fluctuate at highs.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (June 16-19, 2025) are as follows......

[Live: Global New Energy Vehicles & China's Low-Altitude Economy Outlook, Analysis of Electric Drive Metal Prices, Sharing of Innovative Technologies for Motor Materials] ►Analysis and Future Outlook of the Global New Energy Vehicle Market ►Development and Outlook of China's Low-Altitude Economy ►Development Opportunities and Challenges of Low-Altitude Electric Aircraft ►Industrialisation Breakthrough of Ultra-Thin Soft Magnetic Materials for High-Efficiency Drive Motors ►Price and Cost Analysis of Electric Drive Metal Materials

[SMM Weekly Survey on Aluminum Downstream: Operating Rates in Aluminum Processing Industry Under Pressure Across the Board, with Off-Season Effect and High Aluminum Prices Suppressing Demand] This week, the overall off-season atmosphere was strong in the downstream aluminum processing industry. The weekly operating rate fell by 0.6 percentage points WoW to 59.8%. ...

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum: Futures' Four-Day Winning Streak Fails to Conceal Spot Cargo Weakness, Off-Season Deepening Suppresses Upside Room for ADC12] Overall, the rigid cost support and weak off-season demand continue to grapple, leading to a fluctuating rangebound price for ADC12. With the off-season deepening, the short-term price of ADC12 is expected to remain in the doldrums, and the discount status to A00 aluminum is difficult to reverse. Continuous attention should be paid to changes in raw material circulation and marginal fluctuations in off-season demand.