LME Zinc Fluctuates Downward, Focus on US Fed Monetary Policy Meeting Decision [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,050.5/mt. In early trading, a tug-of-war between longs and shorts caused LME zinc to fluctuate around the daily moving average. Near the European trading session, it peaked at $3,070/mt, but shorts launched a high-level attack, driving LME zinc sharply down to a low of $3,015/mt. Subsequently, short positions took profits and exited, allowing LME zinc to recover upward, recording a V-shaped reversal. During the night session, its center returned to the daily moving average for consolidation, with a slight pullback at the close. It ultimately settled lower at $3,036.5/mt, down $9.5/mt or 0.31%. Trading volume increased to 9,992 lots, and open interest rose by 1,572 lots to 234,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc formed a bearish candlestick, with resistance from the 40-day moving average above and support from the 5-day moving average below. LME inventory decreased by 4,400 mt to 262,100 mt, a drop of 1.65%, continuing its downward trend. Overnight, US retail sales data exceeded expectations, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring zinc prices. Additionally, the ratio of LME cancelled warrants slightly pulled back from high levels, and short funds increased, causing LME zinc's center to dip slightly. Attention is on today's US Fed monetary policy meeting decision.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2502 contract opened at 25,350 yuan/mt. In early trading, a tug-of-war between longs and shorts caused SHFE zinc to fluctuate rangebound around the daily moving average, with an amplitude of no more than 200 yuan/mt. Toward the close, shorts increased positions, pushing SHFE zinc sharply downward to end at an intraday low of 25,235 yuan/mt, down 185 yuan/mt or 0.73%. Trading volume decreased to 34,951 lots, while open interest increased by 604 lots to 125,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded three consecutive bearish candlesticks, with resistance from the 5-day and 10-day moving averages above and the KDJ indicator expanding downward. As supply-side constraints ease, the tight supply-driven logic is weakening. However, demand remains better-than-expected in the off-season, inventory is at a seasonal low, and spot premiums are fluctuating at highs, suggesting limited downside room for zinc prices.