【SMM Analysis：SiMn Alloy Spot Prices Remain Stable, Market Sentiment Mixed.】

Published: Dec 14, 2024 01:22

Source: SMM

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【SMM Analysis：SiMn Alloy Spot Prices Remain Stable, Market Sentiment Mixed.】As of this Friday, spot prices for SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) in north China stood at 6,000-6,100 yuan/mt, flat WoW from last Friday. In south China, spot prices for SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) were 6,100-6,200 yuan/mt, also flat WoW from last Friday. For December SiMn alloy prices, the majority of the market holds a bullish outlook. The main reason is the strong sentiment among miners to stand firm on quotes, which is expected to push up manganese ore spot prices, thereby increasing SiMn alloy production costs and providing strong cost support. Additionally, downstream steel mills are expected to engage in winter stockpiling before year-end, leading to a recovery in SiMn alloy demand. Overall, supported by cost and downstream demand, SiMn alloy prices are expected to fluctuate upward. Some market participants hold a bearish outlook on future prices, citing weak end-use demand for SiMn alloy. The steel sector is in its off-season, and steel mills remain cautious in alloy procurement. As year-end approaches, traders are primarily engaging in spot transactions with limited interest in stockpiling. With weak demand-side support, SiMn alloy prices are expected to fluctuate downward. A minority of participants believe that prices are likely to remain range-bound. Currently, SiMn alloy supply remains at a high level. Although downstream steel mills are expected to stockpile for winter, the soft end-use demand for steel is likely to limit the incremental boost from winter stockpiling on SiMn alloy. In summary, with a tug-of-war between supply and demand, SiMn alloy prices are expected to remain range-bound.

As of this Friday, spot prices for SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) in north China stood at 6,000-6,100 yuan/mt, flat WoW from last Friday. In south China, spot prices for SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) were 6,100-6,200 yuan/mt, also flat WoW from last Friday.

For December SiMn alloy prices, the majority of the market holds a bullish outlook. The main reason is the strong sentiment among miners to stand firm on quotes, which is expected to push up manganese ore spot prices, thereby increasing SiMn alloy production costs and providing strong cost support. Additionally, downstream steel mills are expected to engage in winter stockpiling before year-end, leading to a recovery in SiMn alloy demand. Overall, supported by cost and downstream demand, SiMn alloy prices are expected to fluctuate upward.

Some market participants hold a bearish outlook on future prices, citing weak end-use demand for SiMn alloy. The steel sector is in its off-season, and steel mills remain cautious in alloy procurement. As year-end approaches, traders are primarily engaging in spot transactions with limited interest in stockpiling. With weak demand-side support, SiMn alloy prices are expected to fluctuate downward.

A minority of participants believe that prices are likely to remain range-bound. Currently, SiMn alloy supply remains at a high level. Although downstream steel mills are expected to stockpile for winter, the soft end-use demand for steel is likely to limit the incremental boost from winter stockpiling on SiMn alloy. In summary, with a tug-of-war between supply and demand, SiMn alloy prices are expected to remain range-bound.

Market forecast

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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