On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,628.5/mt, surging to a high of $9,700/mt in the early session, then fluctuating downward, hitting a low of $9,621.5/mt during the session, and experiencing a slight correction towards the end, ultimately closing at $9,660.5/mt, up 0.43%.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Has the Inflection Point of Inventory Buildup for Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory Been Formed? Bullish Market Sentiment Still Dominates] On the macro front, there was a clear divergence in the US Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts, while geopolitical conflicts heightened bullish market sentiment. On the fundamental front, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained stable, with the proportion of liquid aluminum staying at a high level, and the market supply of casting ingots remained tight. SMM learned that the casting ingot output of individual aluminum plants slightly increased this week, but it was still difficult to change the overall tight supply situation in the market. On the demand side, overall, most downstream sectors were in the traditional off-season, with significant production cuts feedback from downstream enterprises in central China. Local spot transactions weakened, and continuous large discounts emerged in market transaction prices. From the perspective of downstream demand sectors, the weakening off-season demand in the PV and home appliance sectors could not be ignored, with a significant pullback in the operating rates of related sectors. The operating rate of the wire and cable sector also declined due to the completion of the previous delivery period and high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the destocking pace slowed down, and low inventory levels still provided support to the futures market, but spot premiums/discounts gradually pulled back. In summary, the domestic bullish sentiment on the macro front remained unchanged. On the fundamental front, the low inventory levels of domestic aluminum ingots provided support to aluminum prices, but the weakening off-season demand in the downstream sector was evident. Spot premiums/discounts may fall back from highs, and subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Imports of Unwrought Aluminum Alloys Decreased by 11.5% Cumulatively in the First Five Months, with Thailand Accounting for Over 1/4 of Aluminum Scrap Imports] Last Friday, the SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 20,720 yuan/mt, while the domestic SMM ADC12 price decreased by 50 yuan/mt to 19,900-20,200 yuan/mt. As aluminum prices continued to decline, market quotations diverged, with some enterprises actively lowering their quotations due to sluggish demand, while others remained firm temporarily due to cost pressure.

According to SMM statistics, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas stood at 449,000 mt on June 19, a decrease of 9,000 mt compared to this Monday and a decrease of 11,000 mt WoW from last Thursday. On a YoY basis, the inventory decreased by 307,000 mt compared to the same period last year and by 69,000 mt compared to the same period in 2023, remaining at a low level compared to the same periods in the past three years. Moreover, it is just a stone's throw away from the year's low inventory level of 440,000 mt. The supportive effect of low inventory on aluminum prices remains strong...

[SMM Analysis: Aluminum Billet Production Has Remained High for Several Months; Will It Pull Back in June?] Entering June, low inventory levels both domestically and overseas have sparked a wave of "cornering" in the market, with spot aluminum prices surging and once approaching the 20,000 yuan per tonne threshold. The sustained high aluminum prices have curbed consumption, coupled with the increasingly strong off-season atmosphere in the downstream sector. All types of end-use demand have shown weakness, with aluminum billet destocking efforts faltering and the turning point for inventory buildup approaching. Aluminum billet processing fees have "taken a nosedive" amidst this challenging situation, with the supply-demand pattern gradually collapsing. Some consumption areas have even witnessed "zero processing fees" or "negative processing fees," placing aluminum billet producers under severe inventory and financial pressure once again. According to SMM survey statistics...