SMM Analysis on China November Secondary Lead Production and December Forecast

In November 2024, the production of secondary crude lead significantly increased, up 3.19% MoM, but decreased 28.29% YoY. The production of secondary refined lead rose by 2.72% MoM, but fell by 31.39% YoY. In October, many secondary lead smelters were heavily affected by environmental protection-related controls and equipment maintenance, leading to severe production cuts and shutdowns. In November, production mainly recovered. Additionally, lead prices fluctuated at highs throughout November. In early November, the price of battery scrap did not follow the lead price increase significantly, greatly restoring the profits of secondary lead enterprises, which led to a significant increase in production in late November. December is a traditional maintenance season, and some smelters plan to shut down for maintenance at the end of the month. However, most enterprises expect to increase production due to still favorable profits. Some large secondary lead smelters in Shandong and Jiangxi provinces will resume production, contributing to the main increase in refined lead production in December. A large smelter in Inner Mongolia limited its production in mid-to-late November due to equipment failure but will return to normal in December. Overall, the production of secondary lead is expected to maintain an upward trend in December, but we need to pay attention to the tight supply of battery scrap and the impact of severe winter weather on the production increase.