SMM Analysis on China November Primary Lead Production and December Forecast

In November 2024, the national production of primary lead continued its upward trend, increasing by 3.91% MoM and 9.55% YoY. From January to November 2024, the cumulative production of primary lead decreased by 2.95% YoY. The total capacity of surveyed enterprises in 2024 was 6.0063 million mt.

According to the survey, in November, the production resumption and new capacity of primary lead smelting enterprises occurred simultaneously. Coupled with the strengthening lead prices, this boosted the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises, resulting in a higher production increase than forecasted in the previous period. Specifically, smelting enterprises in Hunan and Henan resumed production after maintenance. Additionally, due to rising lead prices, some enterprises that originally planned maintenance in November postponed or completed maintenance earlier. Furthermore, new projects in Qinghai smelting enterprises were in the ramp-up phase. In November, lead concentrate enterprises saw a production recovery, leading to a temporary increase in supply. Combined with the completion of winter stockpiling by some smelting enterprises, lead concentrate TC in some regions showed signs of stabilization and rebound, providing certain conditions for increased production by smelting enterprises.

Looking ahead to December, based on the production schedules of major smelting enterprises, SMM forecasts that national primary lead production is expected to show a slight decline, with a MoM decrease of 0.63%. The main reasons for the expected decline in December are the planned maintenance of smelting enterprises in Hunan, Guangdong, and Yunnan, including routine year-end maintenance and equipment upgrades, which will drag down the monthly primary lead production. Meanwhile, new capacity in Qinghai smelting enterprises still has room for production ramp-up. Some smelting enterprises that reduced production in November due to declining ore grades plan to recover this month. Additionally, the strong performance of lead prices in early December and improved lead profits may stimulate the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises, leaving the possibility of a slight increase in December primary lead production.