SMM Data: Overseas Aluminum Production in November And December Forecast

According to SMM statistics, in November 2024 (30 days), overseas aluminum production slightly increased by 0.4% YoY, with an average operating rate of 87.7%, up 0.1% MoM and 1% YoY. Cumulative production in 2024 increased by 1.0% YoY.

New Zealand's Tiwai Point aluminum smelter ended power rationing and production cuts in September and is currently in the process of resuming production, with a total capacity of 125,000 mt to be resumed. Full production is expected to be restored by February next year, and the current capacity utilization rate of the plant is about 75%. Additionally, the second phase of a 250,000 mt aluminum smelter project in Indonesia was put into operation in October, but subsequent commissioning progress has been delayed this month due to cost factors. As of November 2024, the commissioning scale of the project was only 30,000 mt, and the specific commissioning time for the remaining capacity is yet to be determined. The total capacity of the plant will reach 500,000 mt after full commissioning.

Looking ahead, SMM expects overseas aluminum production in December 2024 (31 days) to slightly increase by 0.6% YoY, with an average operating rate of about 87.7%, up 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY. However, on November 26, 2024, Rusal announced that due to the surge in global alumina prices and weak domestic aluminum demand, it would cut annual production by 6%, or 250,000 mt per year. The specific plants and timeline for the production cuts have not yet been announced, but this will be a potential reduction in future overseas aluminum production.