【SMM Analysis:Downstream Steel Mill Demand Remains Moderate, SiMn Alloy Production Increases Again in November.】According to SMM data, China's total SiMn alloy production in November 2024 increased by approximately 4% MoM but decreased by over 20% YoY. From January to November 2024, China's cumulative SiMn alloy production decreased by over 8% YoY. The main reason for the increase in SiMn alloy production in November was the moderate trend in steel mill procurement, coupled with positive news stimuli, which led to high operating rates in north China. Although some producers halted operations for maintenance, overall, the increase in SiMn alloy production in north China outweighed the decrease. In south China, due to production pressure, the resumption of SiMn alloy production was slow, with some SiMn alloy plants in Guangxi slightly reducing production, while some in Guizhou resumed production. Overall, the total SiMn alloy production in China increased in November.
Entering December, some SiMn alloy plants plan to conduct maintenance at year-end, leading to a slight decrease in operating rates. Additionally, manganese ore inventory at southern ports remains low, with miners showing a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and manganese ore prices are expected to rise. Due to the increase in raw material costs, some SiMn alloy plants in south China are expected to halt production due to increased production pressure. Therefore, the overall SiMn alloy production in December is expected to decrease.
According to SMM data, China's total SiMn alloy production in November 2024 increased by approximately 4% MoM but decreased by over 20% YoY. From January to November 2024, China's cumulative SiMn alloy production decreased by over 8% YoY. The main reason for the increase in SiMn alloy production in November was the moderate trend in steel mill procurement, coupled with positive news stimuli, which led to high operating rates in north China. Although some producers halted operations for maintenance, overall, the increase in SiMn alloy production in north China outweighed the decrease. In south China, due to production pressure, the resumption of SiMn alloy production was slow, with some SiMn alloy plants in Guangxi slightly reducing production, while some in Guizhou resumed production. Overall, the total SiMn alloy production in China increased in November.
Entering December, some SiMn alloy plants plan to conduct maintenance at year-end, leading to a slight decrease in operating rates. Additionally, manganese ore inventory at southern ports remains low, with miners showing a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and manganese ore prices are expected to rise. Due to the increase in raw material costs, some SiMn alloy plants in south China are expected to halt production due to increased production pressure. Therefore, the overall SiMn alloy production in December is expected to decrease.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.