In 2024, the price of LMO cathode active materials is expected to be influenced by fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices and the overall market supply and demand situation. Lithium carbonate remains a major component of LMO costs, so the price of LMO largely synchronizes with that of lithium carbonate. Additionally, due to significant overcapacity in LMO production and intense industry competition, some market participants have adopted price-cutting strategies to boost sales, leading to continuous declines in spot prices. In the absence of significant upward momentum in lithium carbonate prices, the LMO market lacks strong price support and continues to show a clear downward trend.
China's LMO production in 2024 is estimated to be 120,000 mt, up 31% YoY. Benefiting from the increased penetration of NEVs and the renewal of the consumer electronics market, LMO materials, with their superior charge/discharge rate, low-temperature performance, and cost advantages, as well as abundant manganese resources, continue to hold a significant position in the market, with demand expected to further grow. However, with the rapid expansion of market capacity, the issue of supply surplus will become more apparent, intensifying industry competition and leading to potential restructuring. Under these circumstances, China's LMO production is expected to decline significantly by 2026. From 2026 to 2030, as industry restructuring completes and market activity recovers, continued penetration in end-use applications will drive production back up, albeit at a slower growth rate, with China's LMO production expected to reach 106,000 mt by 2030.
