Frequent Bearish News: How Did the Spot Market Perform Last Week? [SMM Analysis]

SMM, Nov 18: Last week, bearish news was frequent. The market was still trading on "Trump sentiment," while expectations for the number of interest rate cuts next year were lowered. Trump's stance on the Russia-Ukraine situation, along with various bearish news frequently emerging from the US political arena, and Powell's indication of a slowdown in interest rate cuts, all contributed to the suppression of silver prices last week.

[Economic Data]:
Bearish: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 9 were 217,000, lower than the previous value of 221,000 and the expected value of 223,000; the US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 8 was 2.089 million barrels.
Relatively small impact: The US seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rate at the end of October was 2.6%, consistent with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.4%; the US seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for October was 0.2%, consistent with both the previous and expected values.

[Spot Market]:
Silver: Last week, the spot-futures price spread between TD and the 2412 contract remained around 20 in the morning and narrowed in the afternoon. Due to the large spot-futures price spread, the discount against the 2412 contract in the spot market was relatively small. Enterprises, unable to sell at low prices due to high costs, found the large spot-futures price spread favorable for purchasing. Consequently, fewer enterprises were selling, more were buying, and low-priced goods became scarce, leading to higher premiums and discounts. As silver prices trended downward this week, downstream stocking occurred during significant mid-week declines. However, with year-end approaching and silver prices not being particularly low, downstream stocking sentiment was not strong, focusing mainly on just-in-time procurement. Therefore, after stocking on Wednesday, the transaction situation on Thursday and Friday was average.

Photovoltaic: Last week, the market produced according to plan based on just-in-time demand. The pace of reducing unit consumption downstream slowed in November. The market ensured low unit consumption while maintaining light efficiency, resulting in a relatively small reduction in unit consumption. The market primarily focused on stable production.