Industry Chain Production Schedule Exceeds Expectations, Lithium Carbonate Returns to 80,000 Yuan/mt Mark. Can It Go Higher?

Several material companies had high capacity utilisation rates in Q4. Driven by production schedule expectations, lithium carbonate prices rose back to the 80,000 yuan level within a month.

The continuous rise in lithium prices boosted the sector. On November 13, Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) closed up over 6%, while Tianqi Lithium, Youngy, and Sinomine Resource Group closed up over 2%.

Previously, lithium carbonate futures had fallen to a low of 68,250 yuan/mt. In the spot market, lithium carbonate prices surged by 13.29% within a month. Additionally, a reporter from Caixin learned that Albemarle auctioned 200 mt of lithium carbonate today, with a transaction price of 83,400 yuan/mt.

A lithium industry analyst told a Caixin reporter that the recent price increase was mainly due to good downstream production schedule expectations. A representative from a leading electrolyte company stated that the company expects its Q4 production schedule to grow 5% QoQ. This year's production schedule is indeed better, with a higher QoQ growth rate compared to previous Q4s.

A representative from Lopal stated that since Q3, the company has maintained a high capacity utilisation rate. Limited by its own capacity, there was no significant QoQ growth in Q4, but it was close to full production.

Wu Jiang, a senior analyst at Guotou Anxin Futures, told a Caixin reporter that the overall inventory in the lithium carbonate market has decreased significantly recently, with intermediate traders seemingly stockpiling. Australian ore prices have rebounded significantly, with the latest quote around 800 US dollars. Insufficient downstream restocking may be the main reason why lithium prices are hard to fall recently.

Wu Jiang analyzed that in the short term, the bullish outlook is mainly due to the continuation of robust demand, good overall destocking in the industry, concentration of supply among traders, insufficient downstream restocking, and strong order status. The mining side is standing firm on quotes, and technically, the lithium price rebound momentum is strong.

The aforementioned electrolyte company representative stated that this year's demand growth is mainly driven by the trade-in policy boosting car sales and the increase in energy storage demand. Hunan Yuneng also stated in a survey disclosed yesterday that, benefiting from supportive policies such as the trade-in policy, demand in both the power battery and energy storage sectors has maintained robust growth.

Regarding Q4 production schedule expectations, Hunan Yuneng told investors that the company's products are currently achieving full production and sales. In terms of prices, overall, lithium carbonate is still in a state of oversupply. In the short term, it is influenced by a combination of factors such as supply-demand relationship, futures prices, news, and sentiment, making it complex and volatile.