SMM Analysis On China October Ternary Cathode Materials Production And November Forecast

In October 2024, China's production of ternary cathode materials increased 2.6% MoM and was up 4.8% YoY. The overall operating rate in October was 41%, showing a slight increase from September. Overseas, the overall production saw a slight decrease compared to September. In terms of series proportion, the 5-series ternary cathode materials accounted for 27%, the 6-series for 30%, and the 8-series for 35.6% in October. Compared to the previous month, the 5-series saw a significant increase, while the proportions of the 6-series and high-nickel 8-series declined. The market structure saw some changes, with Ronbay, Reshine, and Xiamen Tungsten occupying the top three positions in industry production for the month. The CR3 was 44.5%, CR5 was 58%, and CR10 was 79%, indicating a decrease in market concentration compared to September. On the demand side, global production of ternary battery cells grew slightly by 2.5%, with the increase mainly coming from China. The increase in overseas ternary battery cells was relatively small, and demand remained relatively weak. It is expected that the production of ternary cathode materials will decline in November due to the slowdown in stocking pace by downstream battery cell manufacturers and a decrease in orders.