October iron ore imports remained high; November imports are expected to continue to decline

In October, China imported 103.838 million mt of iron ore and its concentrates, down 290,000 mt from the previous month, a slight decrease of 0.28% MoM; up 4.48% YoY. From January to October, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.0225 billion mt, up 4.9% YoY. Although October iron ore imports slightly decreased MoM, the YoY increase was still significant. SMM believes that October iron ore imports remained high due to the continued growth in domestic pig iron production and the sustained increase in iron ore demand. Additionally, shipments recovered after the completion of maintenance at some ports in Australia and Africa. Furthermore, ore prices increased driven by macro sentiment, leading to more active shipments of non-mainstream cargoes. As a result, October iron ore imports remained high.

Looking ahead to November, domestic end-use demand is gradually entering the off-season, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products has already started to decline. Coupled with the start of the heating season in the north, environmental protection-driven production restrictions have increased, which may affect steel production. Moreover, as the Southern Hemisphere enters summer, weather conditions may interfere with overseas iron ore shipments. Therefore, November iron ore imports are expected to continue to decline slightly.