SMM Analysis On China October PV Module Production And November Forecast

According to SMM statistics, China's PV module production in October increased compared to September. Entering Q4, the peak delivery period for procurement projects and the final rush to meet year-end shipment targets, various module manufacturers increased their operating rates to meet order demands and strive to achieve shipment goals. The operating rate of the top 10 module companies rose to 60%-70%, and the market concentration of modules increased to 78%. Specifically, some saw increases while others saw decreases. The main reason for the increase was the concentrated delivery of orders from downstream customers, while the decrease was due to the unsustainable low-price order-grabbing strategy, exacerbated losses, and weak demand, forcing companies to reduce their operating rates.

Entering November, China's PV module production is expected to slightly decrease MoM, mainly due to reduced production schedules at overseas bases of Chinese companies, while their production schedules within China are expected to remain flat MoM. By technology route, the production schedule of BC modules is expected to increase steadily, PERC modules are gradually exiting the market with a share of less than 5%, N-type TOPCon modules continue to dominate the mainstream market, and the production schedule of HJT modules is expected to increase due to rising year-end domestic delivery demand and overseas orders. At the end of October, there were calls in the module market to reduce production and raise prices, but companies' year-end production and shipment strategies were difficult to unify. Some companies chose to significantly increase production to achieve the final target, while others, due to poor sales and the inability to bear the pressure of losses, chose to continue reducing their operating rates. Year-end delivery demand remains at a peak, supporting the overall production schedule, with a narrow decline.