SMM Analysis On China October Silicon Metal Production And November Forecast

According to SMM statistics, China's silicon metal production in October increased by 15,700 mt MoM, up 3.5% MoM, and by 77,300 mt MoM, up 19.7% YoY. From January to October 2024, production reached 4.1625 million mt, up 1.115 million mt, up 36.6% YoY.

In October, most production areas saw an increase in silicon metal production MoM. In terms of supply increments, Gansu and Xinjiang had the largest increases, at 6,700 mt and 8,500 mt, respectively. Additionally, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia also experienced slight production increases. The main reasons were the ramp-up of new capacity or the resumption of previously halted capacity due to maintenance. The supply reduction was mainly seen in Yunnan, where a small amount of capacity saw production reduced or halted within the month.

In November, Sichuan and Yunnan officially enter the dry season, and local silicon companies have significantly reduced production by the end of October. The production in these two regions is expected to decrease sharply in November. Silicon companies in north China are expected to maintain normal production plans, with some new capacity contributing to the increase. In November, silicon metal supply is expected to show a strong trend in the north and weak in the south. Overall, national production in November is expected to decrease to around 400,000-410,000 mt MoM.