SMM Analysis On China October EMM Production And November Forecast

According to SMM data, China's EMM production in October 2024 decreased by about 3% MoM but increased by about 0.2% YoY, with cumulative production up 11.6% YoY. The MoM decline in October production was mainly due to the planned shutdown of some smelters in Guizhou, affecting production by several thousand mt, while the operating rates and production in other regions such as Guangxi remained relatively stable or showed minor fluctuations. EMM prices in October rebounded compared to September, driven by improved downstream demand and rising bidding prices under favorable domestic policies, coupled with a simultaneous increase in overseas demand after the summer break. Therefore, some manganese plants plan to resume production in November, with an expected production increase of about 5% MoM, mainly in regions such as Guangxi and Guizhou. However, EMM transactions in November are under pressure, spot prices decline, and some manganese plants experience losses in retail transactions. It is expected that the resumption of production at smelters will be delayed or the number of production lines restored will be lower than expected.