Steel prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound this week with limited drop

Last week, the ferrous metals series fluctuated rangebound. In terms of news, macro events were concentrated last week: the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress held a meeting in Beijing from November 4 to 8; on November 6 local time, Trump won the 2024 presidential election. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 11.182 million mt of steel in October, up 10.1% MoM; the US Fed announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, in line with market expectations. In the spot market, steel prices fluctuated slightly upward last week, with moderate transactions at low prices.

Looking ahead, macro events came to an end last week, but macro policy expectations remain. The strong expectations and weak reality logic will continue in Q4. On the industry side, rebar demand has peaked and is gradually declining, while the decline in HRC inventory has slowed, with downstream demand still providing some support. In the short term, the overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound this week.