SMM Analysis On China October Sodium Antimonate Production And November Forecast

According to SMM's survey of major sodium antimonate producers in China, the production of first-grade sodium antimonate in October 2024 increased by 11.78% MoM from September. After a decline in September, there was a rebound. The drop in September's production was mainly due to one producer halting production for two consecutive months and several others experiencing a decline in production. In October, this producer resumed a certain amount of production, but according to SMM, it has once again halted production since November.

Looking at the detailed data, among the 11 surveyed producers by SMM, two were either halted or in a testing phase. Most other sodium antimonate producers maintained stable production, with a few seeing an increase, leading to an overall rise in production. Market insiders indicated that, fundamentally, exports are unlikely to improve in the short term, and there are no significant signs of improvement in end-use demand. Additionally, many producers aim to reduce inventory for year-end cash flow, which is a bearish factor. Some producers are also planning to cut or halt production, which means they will stop purchasing ore and raw materials, leading to an increase in discounted sales of these materials. The scramble for raw material seen in H1 is no longer present. Therefore, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market may continue. SMM expects the production of first-grade sodium antimonate in China to remain stable in November, although some market participants believe that a further decline in production is possible.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing the national sodium antimonate production data. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, the survey includes 11 sodium antimonate producers across five provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 75,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of 99%.