SMM Analysis On China October Refined Zinc Production And November Forecast

In October 2024, SMM reported that China's refined zinc production increased by nearly 10,000 mt or approximately 2% MoM, but decreased by more than 15% YoY, exceeding expectations. Among these, domestic zinc alloy production in October increased by over 1,000 mt MoM. Entering October, domestic smelters increased production, mainly due to production ramp-ups and recoveries from maintenance in smelters located in Hunan, Shaanxi, Henan, and Inner Mongolia, while routine maintenance in Gansu and production cuts in Sichuan caused some reductions. Overall, production continued to rise.

SMM expects that in November 2024, domestic refined zinc production will be nearly 500,000 mt, down by over 10,000 mt or approximately 2.5% MoM, with a cumulative YoY decline of over 6%. Overall, smelter production in November is expected to decrease, with reductions mainly concentrated in smelters in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Henan, and Sichuan due to maintenance and production cuts. Meanwhile, increases are mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Gansu, Hunan, and Yunnan.