SMM Analysis On China October Primary Lead Production And November Forecast

In October 2024, national primary lead production increased significantly, up 8.84% MoM, but down 1.34% YoY. From January to October 2024, cumulative primary lead production decreased by 4.17% YoY. The total capacity of the surveyed enterprises in 2024 is 6.0063 million mt.

According to SMM survey, primary lead smelters resumed production as scheduled in October after maintenance, resulting in a substantial increase in production, fully recovering from September. Specifically, smelters in Henan, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Guangxi resumed production after maintenance, with most being medium to large enterprises, leading to significant production increases. Additionally, new capacity in Qinghai lead smelters was commissioned as planned, contributing entirely new production. Under the influence of these two factors, October primary lead production reached its highest level of the year.

Looking ahead to November, primary lead smelters are expected to maintain stable production. Among the enterprises with production changes, some smelters in Hunan and Henan will continue to recover after completing maintenance in October, reaching normal production levels for the entire month. Meanwhile, smelters in Guangdong and Jiangxi will undergo minor maintenance, expected to last around 10 days. SMM forecasts that November primary lead production will remain flat compared to October.