Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 20,820 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 20,845 yuan/mt and a low of 20,785 yuan/mt, closing at 20,830 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decrease of 0.63%. The trading volume was 37,000 lots, and the open interest was 190,000 lots, with a daily reduction of 488 lots. LME aluminum opened at $2,601/mt, reaching a high of $2,630/mt and a low of $2,595.5/mt, closing at $2,621/mt, up $18/mt, an increase of 0.69%.
Summary: On the macro front, the US Fed's expectations for another interest rate cut have strengthened, global liquidity remains ample, and the Chinese government continues to boost consumption. The escalating hot war situation provides support for gold and commodity prices. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum social inventory has been continuously destocking due to transportation impacts, falling below the 600,000 mt mark. Alumina spot supply remains tight, and some companies' production cuts and suspensions have caused disruptions, keeping alumina prices fluctuating upward, providing strong support for aluminum prices on the cost side. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a low inventory and high-cost state, and short-term aluminum prices may fluctuate upward.
