The market increases its bets on US Fed interest rate cuts; zinc prices are expected to hover at highs [SMM Zinc Morning Comment Oct 30]

Overnight, the number of job vacancies in the US fell to its lowest level since early 2021; Israeli officials said a new round of Gaza ceasefire talks would be held this week; Netanyahu is reportedly holding a meeting to seek a diplomatic solution to the Lebanon issue; Iran plans to increase its military budget by 200%; Hezbollah in Lebanon appointed Naim Qassem as its new leader on the 29th; China decided to include Finland in its unilateral visa-free policy; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the US's investment restriction rules on China; the interest rates on certificates of deposit at the four major state-owned banks in China have all fallen below 2%; A-share buybacks hit a record high.

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,140.5/mt, initially fluctuating around the daily average, then fluctuating downward to hover below the daily average at $3,120/mt. During European trading hours, shorts reduced positions, and LME zinc quickly rose above the daily average to $3,182/mt, then dropped back slightly to fluctuate around $3,160/mt. Subsequently, longs reduced positions, and LME zinc fluctuated downward to a low of $3,088/mt below the daily average. At the end of the session, LME zinc rose slightly again, closing down at $3,127/mt, down $24.5/mt, a decrease of 0.78%. Trading volume increased to 88,695 lots, and open interest decreased by 339 lots to 255,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the upper Bollinger Bands forming resistance and the 40-day moving average providing support below. LME social inventory decreased by 3,750 mt to 243,325 mt, a reduction of 1.52%, recording a decrease in LME social inventory. Currently, the number of job vacancies in the US for September fell to 7.443 million, the lowest level since early 2021, increasing market bets on US Fed interest rate cuts. LME zinc is expected to hover at highs.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2412 contract opened at 25,080 yuan/mt. Initially, longs increased positions, and SHFE zinc quickly rose to a high of 25,240 yuan/mt. Subsequently, longs took profits and exited, causing SHFE zinc to fluctuate downward to a low of 24,995 yuan/mt below the daily average. Then, shorts reduced positions, and SHFE zinc fluctuated upward, closing up at 25,070 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.24%. Trading volume decreased to 80,590 lots, and open interest increased by 787 lots to 113,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small doji, with the upper Bollinger Bands forming resistance and the lower Bollinger Bands providing support. Currently, on the fundamentals side, both domestic and imported ore supplies are tight, and demand is also weak. SHFE zinc is expected to hover at highs, with more macro data to be watched in the future.