Spot Inventory Continues to Decline, Macro Policies Boost Economy, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Oct 29]

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 20,830 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,870 yuan/mt and a low of 20,750 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,790 yuan/mt, down 155 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decrease of 0.74%. Trading volume was 47,800 lots, open interest was 211,000 lots, with a daily increase of 900 lots. Yesterday, LME aluminum opened at $2,663.5/mt, reached a high of $2,681.5/mt, a low of $2,633/mt, and closed at $2,651.5/mt, down $18.5/mt, a decrease of 0.69%.

Summary: Macro front, domestic policies continue to boost the economy, global market liquidity is ample, but the possibility of a ceasefire in the Middle East brings new variables to macro sentiment. Fundamentals side, a bauxite supply crisis has led to alumina prices rising to highs, and the cost of the aluminum industry has increased significantly. Overall, current aluminum ingot spot inventory continues to decline, while the cost side supports aluminum prices to fluctuate at a relatively high level.