Myanmar Ore Imports Blocked Again: When Will the Rare Earth Market Recover? [SMM Analysis]

Recently, rare earth prices have been continuously declining in October, and the much-anticipated "October peak season" did not materialize. The main reason is significant fluctuations in the ore market. At the end of September, the Myanmar government implemented a resource fee preferential policy for miners, leading to a surge in ion-adsorption ore imports at the end of September. Meanwhile, China Northern Rare Earth's listing prices announced in October were lower than market expectations. Affected by these two factors, domestic and foreign miners have been selling rare earth ore in large quantities, further exacerbating the imbalance in market supply and demand.

While ore shipments have significantly increased, the demand from downstream magnetic material enterprises has decreased compared to September. According to SMM statistics, although some large magnetic material enterprises have conducted tenders recently, the number of tenders has significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, which may reflect a decrease in order volumes for magnetic material enterprises in October.

Under these market conditions, upstream suppliers have proactively lowered their sales prices, leading to an overall weakening of rare earth prices after the holiday. However, as of last Friday, when the price of Pr-Nd oxide dropped to 420,000 yuan/mt, separation plants halted their price reduction steps. With tensions rising again in the Myanmar region, rare earth ore imports have once again come to a halt. Additionally, as separation plants will face concentrated deliveries of long-term contracts at the end of the month, SMM expects rare earth prices to fluctuate upward in the future.