Social inventory continues to decline; macro front still releasing positive signals [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Oct 22]

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 20,855 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,890 yuan/mt and a low of 20,725 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,745 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous close. On Monday, LME aluminum opened at $2,615.5/mt, hit a high of $2,656.5/mt, a low of $2,592/mt, and closed at $2,595.5/mt, down $18/mt or 0.69%.

Summary: Macro front, domestic policies continue to boost the market, while tensions in the Middle East and between South and North Korea have driven up prices of gold and commodities. Fundamentals side, the bauxite supply crisis has led to a rapid increase in alumina prices, significantly raising costs in the aluminum industry. Overall demand remains stable with no significant short-term fluctuations. In summary, the supply-demand mismatch in the aluminum market is not prominent, and short-term attention should be focused on changes in macro sentiment.