SMM Nickel Market Morning Comment (Oct 21)

Last week, after a slight increase, refined nickel prices continued to decline, falling back below 130,000 yuan/mt. As the favourable macro sentiment was gradually digested by the market, nickel prices declined. From a fundamental perspective, last week's main hot topic focused on the release of Indonesia's RKAB quota, with a quota of 16 million wmt being released. Although it is difficult to bring a significant increase in nickel ore supply, it undoubtedly gave the market a boost, reinforcing the relatively optimistic outlook for nickel ore supply for the rest of the year. Therefore, SMM believes that nickel prices may see a turning point in the future. From the fundamental perspective of refined nickel itself, the trend of inventory buildup remains unchanged. The downstream sector shows no significant increase in demand, coupled with the continued increase in refined nickel production, which may put pressure on nickel prices. From the perspectives of stainless steel and ternary cathode precursors, demand remains weak, and the trend of oversupply continues. Therefore, SMM judges that while favourable macro data and policies may still provide some support for nickel prices, the fundamentals lack upward momentum for nickel prices, making it difficult for nickel prices to surge in the short term. The expected operating range is 126,000-133,000 yuan/mt.