【SMM Analysis：SiMn Alloy Oversupply, Market Fluctuates Downward.】

Published: Oct 19, 2024 10:08 (GMT+8)

Source: SMM

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【SMM Analysis：SiMn Alloy Oversupply, Market Fluctuates Downward.】Futures market: In September, the most-traded contract fluctuated around 6,156 yuan/mt. The highest settlement price was 6,548 yuan/mt at 10:15, down 3.54% MoM from 6,788 yuan/mt, with the lowest at 5,958 yuan/mt. Throughout the month, the futures market experienced significant volatility. Under the supply-demand imbalance, SiMn alloy prices fluctuated downward. Spot market: Currently, there are still some cost differences between north and south China. In September, manganese ore and coke prices fluctuated downward. Inner Mongolia remains an area with electricity cost advantages, while electricity prices in other regions showed little fluctuation. Due to the decline in material prices, SiMn alloy production costs decreased, alleviating some losses on production for SiMn alloy plants. Overall, north China still has cost advantages. Supply side, the main production areas in north China saw little fluctuation in production due to lower production costs. In south China, the main production areas saw a slight decrease in production due to severe losses on production, and previously halted SiMn alloy plants have no production resumption plans. Demand side, downstream demand for SiMn alloy in September did not meet the expectations of the traditional peak season, and steel mills showed weak enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy. Overall, the oversupply situation of SiMn alloy has not changed, and spot prices of SiMn alloy are on a downward trend. Additionally, according to SMM, entering October, steel mills' production schedules are expected to increase, showing stronger enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy. However, SiMn alloy production remains high, and combined with previous inventory, the oversupply situation in the SiMn alloy market has not changed. With limited downstream demand support, the price outlook for SiMn alloy is expected to continue fluctuating downward.

Futures market: In September, the most-traded contract fluctuated around 6,156 yuan/mt. The highest settlement price was 6,548 yuan/mt at 10:15, down 3.54% MoM from 6,788 yuan/mt, with the lowest at 5,958 yuan/mt. Throughout the month, the futures market experienced significant volatility. Under the supply-demand imbalance, SiMn alloy prices fluctuated downward.

Spot market: Currently, there are still some cost differences between north and south China. In September, manganese ore and coke prices fluctuated downward. Inner Mongolia remains an area with electricity cost advantages, while electricity prices in other regions showed little fluctuation. Due to the decline in material prices, SiMn alloy production costs decreased, alleviating some losses on production for SiMn alloy plants. Overall, north China still has cost advantages. Supply side, the main production areas in north China saw little fluctuation in production due to lower production costs. In south China, the main production areas saw a slight decrease in production due to severe losses on production, and previously halted SiMn alloy plants have no production resumption plans. Demand side, downstream demand for SiMn alloy in September did not meet the expectations of the traditional peak season, and steel mills showed weak enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy. Overall, the oversupply situation of SiMn alloy has not changed, and spot prices of SiMn alloy are on a downward trend.

Additionally, according to SMM, entering October, steel mills' production schedules are expected to increase, showing stronger enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy. However, SiMn alloy production remains high, and combined with previous inventory, the oversupply situation in the SiMn alloy market has not changed. With limited downstream demand support, the price outlook for SiMn alloy is expected to continue fluctuating downward.

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