【SMM Analysis：SiMn Alloy Oversupply, Market Fluctuates Downward.】

Published: Oct 19, 2024 10:08

Source: SMM

Save

【SMM Analysis：SiMn Alloy Oversupply, Market Fluctuates Downward.】Futures market: In September, the most-traded contract fluctuated around 6,156 yuan/mt. The highest settlement price was 6,548 yuan/mt at 10:15, down 3.54% MoM from 6,788 yuan/mt, with the lowest at 5,958 yuan/mt. Throughout the month, the futures market experienced significant volatility. Under the supply-demand imbalance, SiMn alloy prices fluctuated downward. Spot market: Currently, there are still some cost differences between north and south China. In September, manganese ore and coke prices fluctuated downward. Inner Mongolia remains an area with electricity cost advantages, while electricity prices in other regions showed little fluctuation. Due to the decline in material prices, SiMn alloy production costs decreased, alleviating some losses on production for SiMn alloy plants. Overall, north China still has cost advantages. Supply side, the main production areas in north China saw little fluctuation in production due to lower production costs. In south China, the main production areas saw a slight decrease in production due to severe losses on production, and previously halted SiMn alloy plants have no production resumption plans. Demand side, downstream demand for SiMn alloy in September did not meet the expectations of the traditional peak season, and steel mills showed weak enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy. Overall, the oversupply situation of SiMn alloy has not changed, and spot prices of SiMn alloy are on a downward trend. Additionally, according to SMM, entering October, steel mills' production schedules are expected to increase, showing stronger enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy. However, SiMn alloy production remains high, and combined with previous inventory, the oversupply situation in the SiMn alloy market has not changed. With limited downstream demand support, the price outlook for SiMn alloy is expected to continue fluctuating downward.

Futures market: In September, the most-traded contract fluctuated around 6,156 yuan/mt. The highest settlement price was 6,548 yuan/mt at 10:15, down 3.54% MoM from 6,788 yuan/mt, with the lowest at 5,958 yuan/mt. Throughout the month, the futures market experienced significant volatility. Under the supply-demand imbalance, SiMn alloy prices fluctuated downward.

Spot market: Currently, there are still some cost differences between north and south China. In September, manganese ore and coke prices fluctuated downward. Inner Mongolia remains an area with electricity cost advantages, while electricity prices in other regions showed little fluctuation. Due to the decline in material prices, SiMn alloy production costs decreased, alleviating some losses on production for SiMn alloy plants. Overall, north China still has cost advantages. Supply side, the main production areas in north China saw little fluctuation in production due to lower production costs. In south China, the main production areas saw a slight decrease in production due to severe losses on production, and previously halted SiMn alloy plants have no production resumption plans. Demand side, downstream demand for SiMn alloy in September did not meet the expectations of the traditional peak season, and steel mills showed weak enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy. Overall, the oversupply situation of SiMn alloy has not changed, and spot prices of SiMn alloy are on a downward trend.

Additionally, according to SMM, entering October, steel mills' production schedules are expected to increase, showing stronger enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy. However, SiMn alloy production remains high, and combined with previous inventory, the oversupply situation in the SiMn alloy market has not changed. With limited downstream demand support, the price outlook for SiMn alloy is expected to continue fluctuating downward.

Market review

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

2 hours ago

US Department of National Defense Invests in Canadian Company to Expand Germanium Refining Capacity

2 hours ago

3 hours ago

Overseas Molybdenum Market Rises Along with Increased Stocking Demand from Domestic Steel Mills, Molybdenum Market Advances [SMM Molybdenum Daily Review]

[ SMM Molybdenum Daily Review: Overseas Molybdenum Market Rose, Coupled With Increased Stocking Demand From Domestic Steel Mills, Molybdenum Market Increased ] SMM February 4 News: Today, the domestic molybdenum market rebounded slightly. The international molybdenum oxide market held up well, boosting domestic market sentiment. On February 3, a mine in Yunnan auctioned molybdenum concentrate, with the final transaction price rising to 4,115 yuan/mtu, driving up the center of spot order negotiations in the domestic market. Today, prices of major domestic molybdenum products, including molybdenum concentrate, ferromolybdenum, and molybdenum chemicals, generally rose, and market trading sentiment was active.

3 hours ago

11 hours ago

The Magnesium Market Is Under Pressure Across the Board, with Tightening Raw Material Supply and Sluggish Demand Interwoven [SMM Magnesium Morning Meeting Minutes]

[SMM Magnesium Morning Conference Notes: Magnesium Market Under Pressure Amid Tight Raw Material Supply and Sluggish Demand] February 4, cost side, dolomite supply tightened as leading producers in Wutai suspended production, with prices expected to hold up well; ferrosilicon futures dropped slightly, while spot transactions remained neutral, with downstream users mainly making just-in-time procurement. The magnesium ingot market continued its weakness, with offers in Fugu County lowered to 16,400-16,500 yuan/mt, sluggish transactions, and strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream users. Foreign trade was mainly focused on fulfilling previous orders, with few new orders. The benchmark price of magnesium alloy was under pressure due to declining magnesium ingot prices on the cost side, but processing fees held steady. As the Chinese New Year approached, some end-users began holidays, leading to a slight decrease in orders, with the market maintaining a tight balance. The magnesium powder market remained generally stable, though the center shifted slightly downward due to falling raw material prices. On the demand side, domestic trade involved purchasing as needed, while foreign trade saw limited new orders. Overall, the magnesium industry chain faced partial supply tightness providing support in the short term, but sluggish demand remained the core factor driving price trends, with the market expected to stay in the doldrums.

11 hours ago