The import and export volumes of copper cathode fluctuated significantly in Q2. How did it start in Q3? Details are as follows.
The import volume of copper cathode in September is expected to rise 15.7% MoM but decrease 12.2% YoY, reaching 288,000 mt. The cumulative import volume from January to September is expected to be 2.615 million mt, up 5.1% YoY. Due to the continuous improvement in the SHFE/LME price ratio in Q3, the Yangshan copper premiums also increased, boosting the purchase willingness of traders overseas. Therefore, apart from long-term orders, there was an increase in spot order shipments from overseas. The additional volume comes from two sources: one part is South American copper originally scheduled to arrive in August but delayed to September, and the other part is copper cathode obtained by large traders from LME Asian warehouses and transported back to China. Looking ahead to October, according to SMM, traders are expected to continue transporting copper cathode from LME Asian warehouses back to China, along with a continuous increase in South American copper shipments, leading to an expected increase in copper cathode imports in October.
The export window remained closed in September. Refineries with export licenses indicated that, apart from long-term orders, there were no spot order exports, with only a few refineries shipping small amounts to bonded warehouses. Looking ahead to October, as China enters the traditional demand peak season of September-October, coupled with a tight domestic supply of copper cathode, most refineries stated that they would only ensure long-term order exports of copper cathode in October, with no additional export plans, leading to an expected continued decline in export volumes.
