Iron ore prices rebounded in September, and it is expected that there is still room for price increases in October.

Entering September, despite the arrival of the traditional peak season, end-use demand did not significantly improve. Steel mill profits, after a brief recovery, remained on the verge of losses. The slow pace of blast furnace restarts provided limited support for ore prices, leading to a continued decline in iron ore prices. However, with the US Fed's interest rate cut and the intensive announcement of domestic monetary and fiscal policies, market sentiment shifted significantly, driving a sharp rise in iron ore futures. End-use demand also showed a marked improvement in late September, with a substantial increase in the apparent demand for the five major steel products. Total inventory decreased significantly, boosting finished steel prices, improving steel mill profits, and enhancing production enthusiasm. Steel mills concentrated on restarting blast furnaces, and pig iron production rebounded. Additionally, with the National Day holiday approaching, steel mills stocked up in advance, collectively driving a significant increase in iron ore demand. Under the dual influence of fundamentals and the macro front, iron ore prices rose rapidly. By the end of September, the spot prices of mainstream iron ore fines at Shandong's main ports increased by 50-60 yuan/mt MoM.
Looking ahead to October, macro policy expectations remain strong, and market sentiment is optimistic. From a fundamental perspective, overseas shipments are still in peak season, with volumes remaining high. On the demand side, some steel mills plan to restart blast furnaces, and pig iron production is expected to continue increasing, with overall iron ore demand anticipated to have further room for growth. Port inventory remains high, limiting the upward space for spot prices. Overall, with stable fundamentals and optimistic macro sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to have the potential to rise in October.