A new round of easing cycle begins, tin prices may maintain some upward momentum [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

As global inflation eases and the risk of a downturn in the job market increases, the monetary policy focus of central banks in major global economies has shifted from curbing inflation to promoting employment, marking the start of a new easing cycle. Domestically, new fiscal tools are gradually being introduced. With the annual GDP growth target of 5% becoming more challenging and a fiscal revenue shortfall of 3 trillion yuan compared to budget targets, fiscal policy efforts will inevitably intensify, focusing more on boosting consumption and improving livelihoods, while also stabilizing the real estate market, investment, and risk prevention.

Supply side, according to SMM in-depth survey data, domestic refined tin production in September 2024 significantly declined compared to the previous month. In Yunnan, due to a continuous decrease in Myanmar tin ore imports, tight ore supply has substantially impacted the smelting process. Additionally, some companies conducted annual shutdowns for maintenance, leading to a sharp drop in tin ingot production in September. Many smelters and beneficiation plants face production cuts due to insufficient raw materials. Before the lifting of the ban on Myanmar Wa State tin mines, raw material inventories are unlikely to be effectively replenished, and the self-owned raw material inventories of beneficiation and smelting plants are nearly exhausted. It is expected that national tin ingot production will continue to decline in October and may persist until the end of the year.

Overall, driven by macro policies and the widening gap in raw materials like tin ore, tin prices may fluctuate upward in the short term.