SMM Nickel Market Morning Comment (Oct 14)

Last week, nickel prices fluctuated within a range, with macro factors continuing to exert influence. Macro side, post-holiday market sentiment remained strong due to policy benefits, but a downward trend has emerged. This caused SHFE nickel futures to mainly fluctuate between 132,000-135,000 yuan/mt during the week. Fundamentally, the market holds strong expectations for the October RKAB approval increase, and with the upcoming completion of the Indonesian government power transition in late October, there is a consensus on the expectation of marginal supply easing. On the other hand, there is high anticipation for the impact of fiscal policies expected to be introduced by the government in the fourth quarter to stimulate market demand. Although current spot market transactions are relatively sluggish, with some viewing it as strong expectations but weak reality, the optimism under strong policy support in the fourth quarter is expected to drive a new round of upward movement in futures, a view that still holds some recognition in the current market. In this context, SHFE nickel is expected to operate in the range of 130,000-136,000 yuan/mt this week.