SMM Analysis On China September PV module Production And October Forecast

According to SMM statistics, China's PV module production in September remained flat MoM compared to August. In September, PV module companies were still affected by inventory backlog, maintaining a low operating rate in hopes of slightly reducing inventory before Q4. Throughout Q3, the operating rate of module producers was generally low, with variations among companies. The increase for some companies was mainly due to concentrated delivery demands from downstream customers, while the decrease for others was because smaller factories struggled to compete for more orders. Module prices continued to decline in September, with bid prices once again falling below the cash cost for various companies, intensifying profit pressure towards the end of the year. Due to financial pressure and losses, companies generally found it difficult to significantly increase their production schedules. Entering October, China's PV module production is expected to increase MoM. The main reasons are partial inventory reduction by top-tier enterprises at the end of Q3, combined with the year-end delivery peak, concentrated demand, and the pressure to meet shipping targets, leading top-tier enterprises to generally increase their operating rates. Smaller module factories will choose to maintain or reduce production, still facing insufficient orders and losses.