SMM Analysis On China September Silicon Metal Production And October Forecast

According to SMM, China's silicon metal production in September decreased by 20,000 mt, down 4.3% MoM, but increased by 98,000 mt YoY, up 27.5% YoY. From January to September 2024, the cumulative increase was 1.037 million mt YoY, up 39.1% YoY.

In September, silicon metal production declined in multiple regions, with Yunnan and Sichuan experiencing the largest drops. The operating rates of the three major top-tier enterprises in Xinjiang remained stable. The reduction in production in Yunnan and Sichuan was mainly due to market downturns and production pressures, with some arc furnace reductions at the end of August and early September, reflected in September supply decrease. Gansu, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang also saw some capacity shutdowns for maintenance, leading to production declines, with some of this capacity expected to resume in October-November.

By mid-October, there will be no significant further reductions in Yunnan and Sichuan in south China, with most silicon enterprises planning to reduce or halt production by the end of October. In north China, some silicon enterprises in Xinjiang have recently increased furnace operations to raise operating rates, along with some enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Gansu resuming production in October and marginal capacity release from new projects. Considering that October has one more day than September, it is expected that national silicon metal production will increase by approximately 10,000-20,000 mt MoM in October.