SMM Analysis On China September Secondary Lead Production And October Forecast

In September 2024, secondary lead production increased slightly, up 1.09% MoM but down 34.43% YoY. Lead prices first fell and then rose in September. Although some large smelters in Anhui and Guangxi resumed production, contributing to refined lead output, some enterprises reduced or halted production due to falling lead prices, firm battery scrap prices, and difficulties in procurement, keeping overall refined lead supply relatively stable. Lead prices rebounded in mid-to-late September due to pre-holiday stockpiling and government policies encouraging consumption. Smelters in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Anhui that had previously halted production resumed or prepared to resume. According to the SMM survey, most of these enterprises are expected to maintain stable production in October; some indicated that the contribution to output might be in November due to the pre-production preparation and furnace heating cycle. In mid-to-late October, lead-acid battery consumption remains sluggish, and with high raw material costs, some enterprises in Jiangsu and Hunan halted production for maintenance. Overall, October secondary lead production is expected to increase slightly.